Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
